You have to think that, in early December, Mitch McConnell was looking forward to a joyful holiday season. Donald Trump, despite whining about voter fraud and his failure to reverse the outcome with five dozen lawsuits, had lost his bid for re-election. The Electoral College had voted and those votes would be certified by Congress on January 6. Trump’s exit from Washington would make McConnell the most powerful elected Republican. He was a good bet to retain his position as Senate Majority leader: 2020 would be ending with a 50-48 Republican majority and McConnell no doubt felt the special election to fill Georgia’s two seats would increase that edge to no worse than 51-49. Though the Democrats retained control of the House, their majority had shrunk. It’s easy to imagine that McConnell, the self-styled ‘Grim Reaper’ of Democratic legislation, spent his holiday break sipping bourbon while he thumbed through the obstructionist playbook he’d employed during the Obama years as he planned ahead to the Biden administration.
What he hadn’t counted on was Donald Trump.
Trump was continuing his campaign of lies, insisting victory had been stolen from him and refusing to concede defeat. McConnell made anodyne statements about letting the process play out, but it is probable that he saw nothing to be gained in stirring up Trump’s base of cultish followers before January 6th and was content to mark time until Trump was gone. After all, McConnell is the ultimate Washington insider and Trump was an unruly interloper. Their relationship was one of political expediency. McConnell is a cunning legislator with the ability to keep his Senate caucus in line. Trump displayed neither skill nor interest in working with Congress; he preferred executive orders and other actions he could take on his own. If the tax cut bill of 2017 was former Speaker Paul Ryan’s pet project, packing the Supreme Court and the entire Federal judiciary with conservative judges was McConnell’s. Trump simply signed the bills and took the credit.
But as the new year arrived, Trump’s obstreperous behavior began to rattle the Republican Party. The election had brought conspiracy theorists and Trump cultists like Margorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert into the House to join with other radical members. A majority of Republican Senators were reluctant to criticize Trump in public. By the time members of the 117th Congress were sworn in, over 120 Republican House members were primed to reject the Electoral votes of several states when the joint session convened on the 6th. They were joined by a small group of GOP Senators led by Josh Hawley and Raphael Cruz, two men with Presidential ambitions obviously vying for the support of Trumpist voters. McConnell warned his members that such a move had no chance of success (a majority in both Houses is required to sustain an objection to the vote count), but Hawley and Cruz, emulating the performative politics of the reality-tv star ex-President, persisted. Further complicating McConnell’s goal of limiting the successes of Joe Biden and the Democrats was the surprising victory of Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in the Georgia special elections. The Senate was divided 50-50 with Vice-President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote. Mitch McConnell surrendered his position as Senate Majority Leader to Chuck Schumer.
It was a disappointing start to 2021 for the man who reportedly relishes his position of power. And there was still more to come.
Trump had become convinced that Vice-President Mike Pence, presiding over the joint session of Congress on January 6, could annul Electoral votes on his own authority. When Pence rejected this specious argument, the stage was set for the events of January 6. At a rally in a park near the White House, Trump and other speakers urged the crowd to march on the Capitol. The images of the mob violence that followed will be long remembered as will the result: The Electoral College vote count was interrupted for five hours, but the results of the election ultimately confirmed. Significantly, a total of 147 Republican Senators and Representatives voted to reject the ballots of two states (Arizona and Pennsylvania) in a symbolic but futile gesture.
The Democratic reaction to the attack on the Capitol was to pass articles of impeachment in the House indicting Trump for inciting insurrection. McConnell was being pressured on both side. He signalled support for impeachment, hoping to rid himself of Trump: While the trial would take place after Trump was out of office, a conviction would prevent him from holding Federal office again. McConnell wants to win back the majority in 2022, a goal he may feel is more attainable with the unpopular Trump our of the way. Conviction requires 67 votes, meaning 17 Republicans would have to join with the Democrats to convict Trump. While McConnell has not indicated how he intends to vote, he did join with with 44 other Republican Senators last week in opposing a trial of the impeached Trump now that he is out of office as unconstitutional.
McConnell finds himself cornered by circumstances. He may be accustomed to maneuvering while in the minority, but the fracture between the Trumpists and the moderates in the Republican Party threatens his leadership. The clock is ticking towards the 2022 elections and the GOP faces a tough breakdown of the Senate map- 20 of the 34 seats to be decided are held by Republicans. Three Republican Senators (Burr, Portman and Toomey) have already announced their retirements at the end of this term, leaving open seats. With Trump maintaining a grip on the party, matters are in danger of spinning out of control for the erstwhile Senate Majority Leader. The New York Times reported this week that McConnell views Trump
as a dangerous political liability and saw an opening to marginalize Mr. Trump. He may have brought exceptionally energetic new voters into the Republican fold… but [his] excesses and personality had driven women and suburban voters away, and with them control of the House, the Senate and the White House... And after the Capitol riot, his actions had also put at risk the backing of donors and corporate groups that power the party’s campaigns.
Mitch McConnell has lots of reasons to believe 2021 will be a bad year.
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