Trumpus Erroneous
American democracy is threatened by a would-be king and his Knights of the Clown Table
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In a recent piece, I described an approach Sarah Paine (a retired professor of History and Grand Strategy at the US Naval War College) used to frame policies and actions in terms of levels- tactical, operational, and strategic. Dr. Paine’s argument is that success only matters at the strategic level.1 To be effective, a strategy must determine tactical and operational actions.
I repeat this reference because Donald Trump often acts without a clearly stated strategy or a regard for the second and third-order consequences of his actions. This is obvious in his decision to join Israel in a precipitous attack on Iran. Trump and his team of misfits offered a shifting list of rationales for launching a war of choice, and maintain that the war (which they do not call a war) will soon be over.
After all, he boasts, “We’ve already won.”
But, hello: It seems someone forgot to inform the Iranians they’d been defeated. They are launching missile and drone attacks on US military bases in the region, and on targets in Israel and neighboring Arab countries.2 Worse yet, attacks- or the threat of attacks- on ships in the Strait of Hormuz- a choke point through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes- have effectively blocked shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf. Our incursion (or “excursion” as Trump calls it) has shaken global energy markets and poses the danger of a widespread economic crisis. More embarrassing for our President’s ego: he’s called upon our allies to provide warships to escort tankers through the Strait, but has been turned down by all of them.
And to go full FUBAR, when India complained about the interruption in oil supplies, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day suspension of sanctions on Russian oil. India’s purchases inject much-needed cash into the Russian economy, helping offset the costs of its war in Ukraine. Russia has ties to Iran, and there are reports that the Russians are providing intelligence on US targets in the region to the Iranians.
BTW, the Ukrainians are providing guidance on dealing with the Iranian drone and missile attacks to the Gulf states. As we liked to tease each other as kids, Trump deserves a sarcastic “Nice play, Shakespeare,” for this clusterfuck.
None of Trump’s antics should be surprising. He has been on the public scene long enough that anyone older than thirty should have a sense of the essential Donald Trump. He is the man who managed to run three casinos into bankruptcy. He has never met a grift he didn’t like. In a New York Times column last December, Thomas B. Edsall offered these observations about the mental processes of our President:
Peering into President Trump’s mind-set — the logic underpinning his priorities, his morality, his decision making — is like opening up a garbage pail left out for days during a summer heat wave.
The dominant theme is governing by narcissism: Make Trump Great Again.
Trump can be persuaded with money, the purchase of his crypto coins, contributions and sometimes with plain old obsequious flattery.
Trump does not think strategically. Instead, his compulsive need to be a winner, to have his ego or bank account rewarded, precludes anything but short-term tactical calculations shaped by the pursuit of his self-interest.
So, unlike the King Arthur of T.H. White’s epic, our would-be King Donald is not likely to use his power for the good of anyone but himself, his family, and his cronies. His life is a series of transactions- everything’s a deal, and he has to get the better side of every one of them. After the US military incursion into Venezuela to kidnap its President, The Bulwark’s Catherine Rampell detailed why Trump’s explanation that the purpose was to seize and sell Venezuela’s oil makes neither economic nor foreign policy sense. (Read Ms. Rampell’s piece here.)
Trump, keep in mind, invaded Venezuela because he only believes in war for profit, and for years has been saying U.S. military strategy should be guided by the opportunity to make money by seizing other countries’ natural resources.
But Trump is also notoriously a moron who does zero homework.
Footnote: His staffers are also often morons who don’t do their homework. For example, the administration apparently believes that oil is put in literal barrels, which has not been the case for over a century. Also, Stephen Miller recently said that Venezuela is an island.
As we also used to say as kids, “This guy is a legend in his own mind.” (And, of course, in the minds of the millions of MAGA cultists.)
So, as his Iranian gambit goes sideways, it can not be repeated enough exactly how unfit the man is to hold a position of responsibility and power. Last summer, in this space, I wrote that:
… Donald Trump, does not understand the responsibility of the office, and I doubt he has the intellect to do so. What he does relish is the power he has and can wield indiscrimately. He is an immoral and unethical man, a convicted felon, an adjudicated sex offender, a man whom Republican consultant Mike Murphy said “became famous for firing Gilbert Gottfried on the cardboard set of The Apprentice.”
Yet, we the people elected him.
His failings as a leader extend far beyond his own actions: the people he has appointed to government posts are sycophants, self-dealers, and ideologues. The Cabinet is populated by billionaires whose careers have been devoted to personal financial success rather than public service. Some are so unfit (Robert Kennedy, JR, Kristi Noem, Kash Patel) as to lead one to believe that their appointments were Trump waving his middle finger at people who do not support him. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, seems to have been given the job for the sole purpose of being parodied on SNL. Hegseth is no doubt destined for a career as a model in male-grooming product ads after his government service.
Others are blatantly corrupt. Attorney General Pam Bondi, besides running interference to shield Trump from disclosures in the Epstein files, is one of many Administration officials who reportedly engaged in insider securities trading. Warrior-in-Chief Hegseth’s Defense Department reportedly spent millions on crab, lobster, and steak dinners, as well as $98,000 on a piano. Noem, the recently departed Secretary of Homeland Security, spent $172 million to purchase two Gulfstream jets. FBI Director Patel uses a government jet to fly to his country singer girlfriend’s shows.
These expenditures contrast with the President’s campaign pledges to cut government spending. We haven’t forgotten that Elon ‘Dark MAGA’ Musk’s DOGE (‘Department of Government Efficiency’, which was not an actual Executive Branch agency) promised to reduce the Federal budget by $2 trillion. Now the non-war against Iran is costing over $1 billion a day, and the military is burning through an inventory of weapons that will cost billions more to replenish. If this is winning, then “Yes, Mr. President, we’re tired of winning. We can’t afford it.”
We’d like to believe that there is a certain skill set necessary to govern a large, diverse population. I am sad to report that there are no signs of these skills in Washington these days. Trump’s go-it-alone style has predictable consequences. There are palpable economic effects, including his boneheaded tariff regime, job losses, and the looming spectre of inflation. On the world stage, we are no longer regarded as the leader of the free world. Trump has disparaged and bullied our allies, fracturing the alliances that helped the world avoid another global war for 80 years. We have a private citizen, Jared Kushner, involved in diplomacy while negotiating overseas business deals for himself. At the same time, an appointed special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is also piggybacking his business dealings with his “public” service. Europe and Canada are negotiating trade deals that exclude the US
On the domestic front, the immigration crackdown has become symbolic of the Administration’s disregard for basic human rights and decency. As some have said, cruelty seems to be the point. The murders of two US citizens in Minneapolis were shocking, and for some Americans, too similar to the actions of other repressive authoritarian governments. The media is attacked for not serving as government public relations outlets. Trump is bullying Congress to pass the SAVE Act, a bill that would allow the federal government to intervene in the voting process, a power belonging to the states. The fact that this bill may not pass is one of the first inklings that Congress may be awakening to its coequal status as a branch of government.
If the nation is to survive, it must acknowledge the damage being done and find a way to repair itself. There is no simple solution. The harm being done is happening at a rapid pace; emerging from the crisis will take years, if not decades. As Winston Churchill sardonically quipped, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing- after they’ve tried everything else.”
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You can view Professor Paine describing the concept in this video.
Among the countries and cities Iran has attacked in the region are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, following a joint US-Israel strike. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Kuwait, Beirut, Manama, Erbil, Baghdad.