War

Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminds us that, if we believe in good in this world, we must accept that evil exists, too.

Note: Apologies for not publishing a piece last week. I did put a great deal of time into writing about the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, concentrating on historical background, but I found it difficult to distill that history into a few paragraphs. I was seeking to use past events as a precursor to the current situation. I am a believer that the past can inform us about the present, that, as Mark Twain purportedly quipped, “history doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”. I still believe that and I will return to that history soon.

Last week, the Russians, having spent the last few months amassing forces along their border with Ukraine, began an aerial and artillery bombardment prior to a full-scale invasion by ground forces. It was widely assumed that the Russians would overwhelm the Ukrainian defenses quickly and install a puppet government more to Moscow’s liking.

That didn’t happen.

The Ukrainian military has put up a fierce resistance up to this point, preventing the Russians from capturing the capital of Kyiv and the nation’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. Bogged-down Russian columns have fallen prey to attack. Apparently not anticipating this situation, Russian logistics failed to maintain a steady flow of fuel and supplies. Reports indicate that the morale of Russian troops is low and many have surrendered rather than fight.

This contrasts with the patriotic fervor animating the Ukrainians, personified by the bravery and inspiration of their President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Citizens are organizing themselves into militias to resist the Russians. While the prognosis is that the Russians will ultimately achieve their aim of taking Kyiv and forcing out the government, their hope for a quick end to hostilities has been washed away.

In this sense, Russian President Vladimir Putin is being frustrated by his own miscalculations. Besides the unexpected resistance by the Ukrainians, it is also likely that Putin did not foresee the United States, Europe, and other nations joining together to isolate Russia. Even traditionally neutral Switzerland leveled economic sanctions on Russia. The result is financial pressure is being exerted on both the Russian state and the oligarchs enriching themselves in its kleptocracy. Whether the oligarchs will view the situation as an opportunity to oust Putin from power is difficult to predict. What is apparent is public sentiment opposing the war. In a nation that deals harshly with public protests, thousands have taken to the streets in several Russian cities and many have been arrested.

None of this will move Putin. As I write this, he is increasing the violence in Ukraine. Kyiv and other cities are being subjected to indiscriminate bombardment, and the Russians are reported deploying horrific weapons such as cluster munitions and thermobaric rockets. They are striking civilian areas as well as military targets; bombs have struck hospitals and apartment complexes. It is a war of terror.

There is an evil consistency to Putin’s rule. The former KGB agent reportedly yearns for Russia’s days as a world power and regards the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest tragedy of the 20th Century. He has struck out on a revanchist path to restore what he believes is Russia’s rightful place in the world. He is ruthless in this pursuit and that does not bode well for Ukraine in the near future.

Again, the past is prologue to the present. As Prime Minister in 1999, Putin oversaw the Russian attack on separatist Chechnya that featured indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilian targets and destructions of large parts of the Chechen capital of Grozny. Likewise, beginning in 2015, Russia deployed military assets in Syria in support of Bashar Hafez al-Assad’s government in its civil war against multiple rebel groups. As in Chechnya, the Russians indiscriminately targeted medical facilities and other civilian targets. Whether or not Ukraine survives as a democratic nation, it is likely to be subject to brutality and terror in the next few weeks.

Wars are horrific and terrifying. The Yugoslav wars in the 1990s were brutal and resulted in thousands of civilian deaths. But those were not wars of conquest. In attacking Ukraine, Putin is acting on a personal impulse, perhaps even a sense of paranoia. Ukraine posed no threat to its neighbor unless you believe that a democracy adjacent to autocratic Russia, a democracy eager to align itself with Europe and the West, threatened a dictator who commands the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

It is Ukraine that is the victim of Putin’s paranoia. Where does that leave Russia? As events unfold, Russia is being isolated from the world’s financial system and treated as a pariah. Germany has canceled the Nordstream 2 pipeline that would have brought it Russian natural gas. A number of nations have banned Russian aircraft from their airspace. Many countries are supplying military equipment to Ukraine. Humanitarian aid is also being provided.

And so it is also Russia that is the victim of Putin’s paranoia. Having misjudged the disunity, both within the United States and in Europe, his aggression has resulted in strengthening the ties among the West’s traditional allies. The Biden Administration has been effective in restoring a leadership role for the US on the world stage while allowing room for other leaders to play prominent parts. It is doubtful that this is the return to empire that Putin thought he would get.

As Ann Applebaum wrote in The Atlantic today:

And what about Russia? Is Russia condemned always to be a revanchist state, a backward-looking former empire, forever scheming to regain its old role? Must this enormous, complicated, paradoxical nation always be ruled badly, with cruelty, by elites who want to steal its wealth or oppress its people? Will Russian rulers always dream of conquest instead of prosperity?

Putin has backed himself into a corner and that makes him dangerous, He has made ominous statements about repercussions and placed Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Force on alert. Would he risk nuclear war? Is he that much of a nihilist?

Or is he just plain evil, a man devoid of humanity?

---

168 newsletters are emailed on an unscheduled basis. Newsletters are also posted to www.1hundredsixty8.substack.com. Visit the site to view archived newsletters.

If you would like to support my efforts here, please consider becoming a paying subscriber for $5.00 per month.

If you don’t wish to become a regular subscriber, please consider making a contribution from time to time by leaving a tip. Click below:

Aside from your comments- which are encouraged- if you would like to submit a piece of your own for 168, please email me at nicrosato2@gmail.com.