What does It Mean To Be Good at Politics?
Some analysis on the state of our politics
Politics: Those activities that enable the members of a society to collectively achieve important human goals they cannot otherwise achieve individually.
In a system that requires the people to choose the leaders of their government by voting, the primary task of a politician is to win elections. Consequently, there is a division between the politics of elections and the politics of governance. In our representative democracy, nothing a politician promises is meaningful unless she/he wins a seat. Elections for most public offices are zero-sum contests: there is only one winner. Lose an election and the candidate’s policy prescriptions usually vanish.
There is also the reality that emotion and the ignorance of complex policies play a major role in voters’ preferences. People react viscerally to candidates and their messages. Democrats continue to put the policy cart before the electoral horse, campaigning on proposals that, no matter how well-crafted, often do not resonate with voters. As a political entity, the party of FDR has lost touch with some of its base by ignoring the words of 19th Century statesman Otto von Bismarck that politics is “the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best”. This is a lesson not learned by Democrats as they continue to be, in Lincoln Project founder Rick Wilson’s words, “holistically bad at elections”. Republicans, on the other hand, avoid policy as a campaign talking point, focusing instead of whipping up the voters with cultural issues.
Yesterday’s results in Virginia are the latest example of Democratic futility. The Republican candidate, Glenn Youngkin, stuck to a simple message based on several themes popular with the far-right: Opposition to vaccine and mask mandates, and to the teaching of Critical Race Theory in schools (which is not being done). He was also effective in signaling to the Republican Party that it is not necessary to genuflect before the former President to be successful with the GOP base. Youngkin maintained distance from Trump while seemingly embracing Trumpian talking points, notably tip-toeing around Trump’s “Big Lie” about last year’s election being stolen. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe’s campaign theme centered on linking Youngkin to Trump. In the aftermath of his defeat, McAuliffe faced criticism that he had not engaged Democratic voters frustrated by the slow recovery from Covid.
There is any number of external reasons for McAuliffe to have lost in a state that went to Biden by a 10% margin: Disappointment with the stalled Biden agenda in Congress; rising prices, are perceived as inflation and hung on the Biden Administration though the increases are mostly due to supply-chain issues and the continuing effects of the pandemic, the messy exit from Afghanistan; and most obviously, the poor messaging from both the Administration and Congress on its agenda. These issues are likely to play a role in the 2022 midterms.
What is notable is that Republicans have not fared well in Presidential elections when measured by the popular vote. Since 1988, only George W. Bush had more votes than his Democratic opponent (Bush 50.7%, John Kerry, 48.3%, 2004). But the real political game is in state elections since the individual states control important aspects of voting such as redistricting for House seats and deciding who is eligible to even cast a ballot. It has been the GOP’s goal for years to gain control of state governments. They succeeded: The Republicans hold a “trifecta” in 23 states (governor and both houses of the legislature); the Democrats only 15. Elections have consequences.
So, to answer my own question, being good at politics first means winning elections, doing whatever it takes. Gaining a working majority is necessary to manage the government (except, of course, in the US Senate, where the minority can use the filibuster to thwart the will of the majority). By this measure, the Democratic Party is not doing well, failing to win a clear majority in Senate in 2020 at the same time their House majority was reduced. Yesterday’s results were equally as disappointing.
As for running the government, Democrats have traditionally done better than Republicans when they held the White House. But it is still a political reality that messaging and the sausage-making of cutting deals both within your own party and across the aisle are requisite political skills to govern effectively. Governing is a forward-looking process- what you accomplished in the past is often not relevant to the issues of today and tomorrow. The Democrats have slim minorities in Congress and their inability to take a disciplined, united approach means their margins to successfully enact the President’s agenda are hair-thin. As the Republicans content themselves in the role as obstructionists and the Democrats bicker over details and allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good, they squander opportunities to pass legislation popular with the public. Whether they can get their legislative act together in the current environment remains uncertain.
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Winning elections must be the first priority of office holders and candidates, no doubt. But that's a function of promises made to voters and clarity of explaining what that means in everyday life. Democrats make promises of a better future, a more perfect union, if you like. Republicans want to free everybody up by reducing taxes and deregulating individual behavior; their unspoken objective is to rule with a shrinking voter base, cancel democracy found in our unique politics. So Democrats must improve their messaging, their marketing, the clarity of their policies; Republicans must only appeal to base greed and selfishness. Voters must choose but they typically treat elections as very superficial exercises, like a beauty contest.
Partisans on both sides typically dive deep into the stances, sometimes called platforms, of their parties to vote. The rich vote for keeping more of their 50% of national assets and 90% of its income. Their money buys influence in campaign donations to those who will vote their way. Nothing else matters as they can buy anything or move anywhere to maintain a different lifestyle from the hoi polloi. The rest of the population votes for single issues that will maintain the stability of their lifestyles and occasionally improve their options in work and play. They have the votes to assure favorable voting overall but not for individual issues, so they must compromise in a 'big tent' party. Their (middle class) stability depends on voter access and turnout.
All this shows a vast gulf between the rich few and the rest. So voting is what determines who rules the roost. Republicans appeal to fear and anxiety as what motivates their smaller electorate. Haters and bigots and the greedy find Trump and GOP messaging appealing as their numbers decrease for lack of popular national aims (policies) and personal greed (for individual rights and my-way-or-the-highway freedoms, or money). So irrelevant issues like public school teaching of critical race theory and stolen elections motivate them. Democrats have pocketbook issues like jobs availability and training, unemployment compensation (in pandemic), daycare for mothers to reenter the workforce, child tax credits to help pay for suburban active mothers whether working or not, free basic college for young adults and strapped parents who can't afford tuition, and medical issues like reduced drug costs and overall affordable healthcare. Notice these latter issues are being resolved in congress which can't get the votes for passage. So if you think you are rich, you vote Republican (regardless of democracy issues); if you are middle class or poor, you vote Democratic (while facing fragmented voting delays). The differences turned Virginia red again for lack of congressional action; New Jersey with its greater wealth in urbanization kept (barely) its blue status.
The rub is that Republicans continue to elect lower level partisans who are pushing voter suppression, gerrymandering, and new laws allowing incumbents to nullify vote results they don't like (steal voting outcomes tried mightily by Trump in 2020). Democrats continue to ignore these existential factors while emphasizing policy enhancements already listed. So the next 12 months will tell us if Democrats can explain and pass their 'more perfect union' laws given filibuster, reactionary and obstructive caucus behavior hurdles, or Republicans can maintain the disruptive, lying, obstructive, distractive behaviors that get them more representation in office than their numbers would dictate if elections were free. In less than a year we'll all know if herding cats by Democratic leaders can defeat the fall-in-line Republicans to keep the House and Senate in 2022 elections or Republicans can remain hyper energized another year to retake one or both chambers. Can Republicans maintain their energy levels of hatred and bigotry and/or can Democrats clarify their good legislative efforts to improve middle class lots? Given history, the odds are with Republicans.