Politics 2, Constitution 0

Impeachment is political theater, not courtroom drama

For those hoping that Donald Trump, perhaps our worst President, and, according to many, an even worse human being, would finally be held accountable for something- in this case, the storming of the Capital by a mob of his supporters on January 6- Saturday did not provide a happy ending. Trump’s impeachment trial ended with the Senate voting 57-43 for conviction, short of the 17 vote supermajority necessary to find the former President guilty of inciting the insurrection. Since most Republicans made it clear before the trial began that they would vote to acquit, the outcome was never truly in doubt. That seven Republicans joined with 48 Democrats and 2 Independents to vote guilty was notable for having the largest number of Senators in our history vote to convict an impeached President of their own party. If nothing else, it makes any Trump claim of “total exoneration” fraudulent on its face.

For many rank-and-file Democrats, however, the outcome was frustrating. The House impeachment managers had made a compelling case and the ex-President’s legal team had countered with a parody of a defense. More galling to those Democrats who imagined Trump’s moment of reckoning to be at hand was the issue of witnesses. Before the trial began, Republicans attempted to deter the Democrats from calling witnesses by threatening to drag the trial out for months if the House managers called a witness. With the likelihood of not getting the necessary Republican votes to convict, and with Senate Democrats eager to move past the trial and onto the Biden Administration’s legislative agenda, they opted to present their case without in-person testimony, instead relying on public statements, tweets, and an amalgamation of video from security cameras, news broadcasts, and social media postings by the insurrectionists themselves to make their case.

This calculus was upset on Friday evening. During the siege on the 6th, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called the White House and, in a heated exchange that reportedly deteriorated into a shouting match, pleaded with Trump to call off the mob. After the call, McCarthy related details to Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA), telling her Trump refused his request. After first denying the insurrectionists were his supporters, Trump, according to Herrara Beutler, told McCarthy “I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are.” Herrera Beutler went public with McCarthy’s disclosures to her, releasing a statement on Friday night.

The House managers wanted to call Herrera Beutler as a witness, but they were confronted by a series of tough choices. There was pressure from some Senate Democrats to quickly move on from a trial whose outcome was preordained. There was the probability of the Republicans resorting to delaying tactics to prolong the trial. And Senate rules required all witnesses be deposed prior to testifying, meaning more delays. Still, the managers felt getting testimony describing Trump’s behavior after the mob had invaded the Capital from a Republican witness on the record would be the linchpin to their already strong case and would influence public opinion if not some GOP Senators.

So, a motion to call witnesses was made when proceedings began Saturday morning, and chaos ensued. The defense team was caught off guard, Republicans were angry. The motion passed, 55-45. At this point, the fact that an impeachment trial, unlike a trial in criminal or civil court, is political in nature came into sharp focus. The Senate took a short break, during which the leaders and lawyers from both sides worked out a deal: Rep. Herrera Beutler’s public statement would be read into the record by the House managers with no objection from the defense. Politics had won out.

Politics: The Democratic Side

Many Democrats, including some Senators and House members, saw this as a capitulation and were outraged. They were clinging to the belief that calling witnesses would lead to Trump’s conviction. On Twitter, comedian/ writer Jen Kirkman summed up the situation this way:

For people mad at Dems: Can we try to understand how politics (and not justice) works? The Dems simply wanted the [McCarthy} phone call information to be added to the record. They threatened to call witnesses as a negotiation tactic, thus getting the Republicans to do what the Dems originally wanted- enter the phone call on the record. In 2022, if the argument is that when Dems had the House/Senate/Presidency, they stalled on Covid relief in order to try to convict an already out-of-office President, people will FALL FOR IT. 

The fact is the Democrats’ options were constrained from January 7 on by Mitch McConnell’s canny manipulation of the Senate’s arcane practices and the timeline. On the day following the insurrection, January 7th, McConnell stated publicly that impeachment was warranted. On Friday, January 9, in his role as Majority Leader, he declared the Senate in recess until the 19th, the day before the inauguration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, making it impossible for a potential impeachment trial to begin before Trump’s term as President ended January 20. McConnell also balked at approving the Organizing Resolution (OR), the routine piece of business the Senate conducts at the beginning of each term to specify the membership of its committees and other housekeeping business. It had been delayed pending the outcome of the run-off election to fill Georgia’s two Senate seats. McConnell threatened to filibuster the OR unless the Democrats included a promise not to eliminate the filibuster. It wasn’t until the 25th that the Organizing Resolution was agreed on and passed, the same day the House transmitted the single Article of Impeachment it had passed on the 13th to the Senate.

Politics: The Republican Side

Republicans are already dealing with fissures in their coalition. The major divide is between the Trumpists- those who remain or pretend to remain loyal to the former President- and the establishment Republicans led by Mitch McConnell. The latter want to move on from Trump. He’s cost the party its control of Congress and the White House. The GOP is hemorrhaging voters and, especially important to McConnell, donors. McConnell’s main goal is to regain the Senate majority in 2022. For that, he needs to retain the donors who contribute to the PACs and SuperPACs that undergird his power. Wooing these contributors, who were alarmed by the mob violence of the 6th, requires demonstrating that the establishment faction remains in control of the party. McConnell is the ultimate Washington insider, a skilled practitioner of the Senate’s rules and procedures, and adept at counting votes and taking the temperature of his caucus. On the 26th, for example, Senate Republicans voted to rule the impeachment trial unconstitutional since Trump was no longer in office. This measure was defeated 55-45, with five Republicans joining with the Democrats. Despite his initial statement that impeachment was warranted, Mitch McConnell was not among them.

Winning in 2022 means obstructing the Biden agenda by running the same playbook he employed when Barack Obama was President. Party discipline would be a necessity in the Senate. His problem was the Trumpists who fear being attacked by the Trump base if they do not exhibit sufficient loyalty to the Man From Mar-A-Lago. A smaller group with Presidential aspirations would like to win the support of the Trump base but would prefer not to have to deal with a Trump candidacy in 2024.

This is not the only dynamic testing McConnell’s ability to control Republican politics beyond the Senate chamber. Trump has widespread support in the Republican National Committee- his hand-picked choice, Ronna McDaniel, was re-elected as RNC chair in January. Trump loyalists dominate state and county committees. Elected Republicans who are deemed insufficiently loyal are being censured by their state or local parties: Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY), third-ranked in GOP House leadership, who faced a vote to strip her of that post after voting for impeachment, was subsequently censured by the Wyoming GOP. Ben Sasse (NE) and Bill Cassidy (LA) were censured by their state parties for voting to find Trump guilty Saturday. North Carolina Republicans intend to do the same for Senator Richard Burr, as does Utah for Mitt Romney. Cindy McCain, the late Senator’s widow, Jeff Flake, former US Senator, and Doug Ducey, the current Governor, were all censured by the Arizona GOP.

These actions are vaguely reminiscent of Stalin’s Great Purge of the Soviet Communist Party in the 1930s or Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China in the 1960s. Like them, the current Republican Party is a cult of personality.

The Takeaways

There are several possibilities for how the aftermath of Trump’s second impeachment trial plays out. The 21 months to the 2022 elections will pass by quickly and the parties are already positioning themselves for the campaign. For the Republicans, even given their factious condition, the 50-50 division in the Senate will create the space for them to obstruct the Democratic agenda. While they will be less implacable on Covid relief to avoid having their intransigence turned against them in 2022, they will take every opportunity to make the case the Democrats are ineffective. While this would play into their campaign messaging, there is concern that fielding Trumpist candidates will cost them winnable races, much as the Tea Party movement did in 2012. They cannot afford to lose middle-class white voters and suburban women.

In theory, the Democrats, following Biden’s lead, have a simple strategy- govern competently and effectively. That means they will soon come to the decision point on eliminating the filibuster. They appear to have little choice if they truly desire to pursue a bold agenda. It also means that recalcitrants Kristen Sinema and Joe Manchin would have to be persuaded to come on board to maintain the 50-50 tie and allow Vice-President Harris to cast the deciding vote.

They also need to continue voter registration efforts, especially since the Republicans have already begun to legislate various voter-suppression measures. The GOP also controls more states than the Democrats when it comes to redistricting for the House, so expect a flood of partisan gerrymanders.

As for the ex-President, his ability to continue as a force in Republican politics will likely depend on the status of the reported criminal and civil investigations swirling around him. Given the fact that the case the House managers made against him did little to affect his popularity with his base, it may be that even a criminal conviction would not hurt his standing. He would, as he has done in the past, cast himself as the victim. What would hurt him is a rebuke in the form of a substantial Republican defeat in the next election.

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